The TOR:CON Index
from Dr. Greg Forbes' Facebook Page

Severe Weather Expert, Dr. Greg Forbes developed the TOR:CON index to estimate the risk of a tornado on a given day or night near your area.

The TOR:CON index ranges from 0 to 10. Multiply the value by 10 to get your percentage chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location. For example, a TOR:CON index of 6 means there's a 60% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location in the indicated area.

Note: By definition, a severe thunderstorm contains one or more of the following: hail at least 1 inch in diameter, wind gusts 58 mph or higher, or a tornado.

TOR:CON Value Descriptions

8+
Very high probability of a tornado
High probability of a tornado
Moderate chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
Low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm

Monday Feb / 19th Last Updated: 02/19/18 3:39:47 PM

A chance of isolated severe thunderstorms in a corridor of central an west TX near Del Rio, San Angelo, Abilene, west of I-35, central and northeast OK, southeast KS, mainly in evening and overnight

TORCON - less than 2

TUESDAY 2/20

Probably no severe thunderstorms but thunderstorms with locally heavy rain in east TX, east OK, west AR, southwest to east-central MO, central IL

TORCON near zero

Wednesday Feb / 21st Last Updated: 02/19/18 3:39:13 PM

A chance of isolated severe thunderstorms as a front sags into southeast TX, southwest and central LA

TORCON - less than 2

THURSDAY 2/22

Probably no severe thunderstorms

TORCON near zero

Discuss Torcon on Facebook