The TOR:CON Index
from Dr. Greg Forbes' Facebook Page

Severe Weather Expert, Dr. Greg Forbes developed the TOR:CON index to estimate the risk of a tornado on a given day or night near your area.

The TOR:CON index ranges from 0 to 10. Multiply the value by 10 to get your percentage chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location. For example, a TOR:CON index of 6 means there's a 60% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location in the indicated area.

Note: By definition, a severe thunderstorm contains one or more of the following: hail at least 1 inch in diameter, wind gusts 58 mph or higher, or a tornado.

TOR:CON Value Descriptions

8+
Very high probability of a tornado
High probability of a tornado
Moderate chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
Low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm

Sunday Jul / 8th Last Updated: 07/06/18 3:36:02 PM

Isolated severe thunderstorms in north MN, southeast ND, northeast and central SD

TORCON - 2

Computer models differ, but there is a chance that a tropical cyclone could affect eastern NC

Convergence along a frontal zone should focus a few severe storms, but lack of upper forcing and relatively air and high cloud bases hold down the tornado threat

Monday Jul / 9th Last Updated: 07/06/18 3:35:37 PM

A chance of severe thunderstorms ahead of a cold front in south MI, northwest OH, north and central IN, central IL, possibly east-central MO

TORCON - 1

A chance of severe thunderstorms along a stationary front in northeast WY, southwest SD, northwest and north-central NE

TORCON - 1

Computer models differ, but there is a chance that a tropical cyclone could affect eastern NC

Tuesday Nov / 13th Last Updated: 11/13/18 11:03:52 PM

that it's blurry - saw this, stopped, and shot a photo through my windshield

But it's a good message for everybody (and a pretty tree in the background) !

Wednesday Oct / 31st Last Updated: 10/31/18 12:50:36 AM

Halloween, everybody

I'm dressing up as Sponge Bob Square Pants this year

Friday Jul / 6th Last Updated: 07/09/18 12:04:19 PM

A chance of severe thunderstorms in east ME, southeast NH, central and east MA, east CT

RI, Long Island, central and south NJ through early afternoon

east MD, DE, VA, east WV, southeast KY, north-central and northeast TN, north NC, DE, DC

TORCON - 1

A cold front is heading across the Northeast, but may clear most of the New England coast early enough that instability will be limited

Winds south of New England are weak at all levels, so any severe storms should be of the pop-up (pulse) variety with spotty localized microburst winds and locally heavy rain

Saturday Jul / 7th Last Updated: 07/09/18 12:04:19 PM

Isolated severe thunderstorms probably beginning in the evening and continuing overnight in south and east ND, north MN, northwest SD, possibly extreme southeast MT and extreme northeast WY

TORCON - 2 to 3, especially for any storms that form in the evening

Storms will likely form in a trough of low pressure over the region in the evening and overnight as a weak upper trough heads toward the region north of an upper ridge

Moisture seems limited and some capping aloft, which should limit the tornado threat despite a developing low-level jet

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