The TOR:CON Index
from Dr. Greg Forbes' Facebook Page

Severe Weather Expert, Dr. Greg Forbes developed the TOR:CON index to estimate the risk of a tornado on a given day or night near your area.

The TOR:CON index ranges from 0 to 10. Multiply the value by 10 to get your percentage chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location. For example, a TOR:CON index of 6 means there's a 60% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location in the indicated area.

Note: By definition, a severe thunderstorm contains one or more of the following: hail at least 1 inch in diameter, wind gusts 58 mph or higher, or a tornado.

TOR:CON Value Descriptions

Very high probability of a tornado
High probability of a tornado
Moderate chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
Low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm

Sunday Apr / 22nd Last Updated: 04/21/18 2:57:59 PM

Isolated severe thunderstorms in east-central and southeast MS, extreme southeast LA, central and south AL, western FL panhandle

TORCON - 2 to 3

A chance of isolated severe thunderstorms in southeast AR, northeast LA, west MS, central and east FL panhandle, possibly extreme southwest GA

TORCON- 2 or less

A weak surface low moves across the Mid-South and into the Gulf Coast states with a warm front from northern MS to the eastern FL panhandle

This may focus a small tornado threat, but widespread clouds and precipitation will likely hold down instability

An approaching upper low and a weak to moderate low-level jet contribute to a modest severe threat despite the weak instability

Monday Apr / 23rd Last Updated: 04/21/18 3:30:19 PM

Isolated severe thunderstorms in south GA, extreme northeast FL

TORCON- 2 to 3

A chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm in north and east-central AL, central GA, east FL panhandle, north and east FL peninsula, possibly extreme southeast SC

TORCON - 2 or less

Some severe thunderstorm threat will be present along a warm/stationary front in south GA where the greatest combination of weak instability and frontal forcing will be present

The cool upper low may give enough instability for a severe thunderstorm along the stalled front in north AL

A severe storm could develop if a sea breeze front develops in east FL

Tuesday Apr / 24th Last Updated: 04/21/18 3:29:36 PM

A chance of isolated severe thunderstorms in east and central NC, central and east SC, possibly extreme southeast VA

TORCON - 2 or less

A warm front continues northward and may allow enough instability for a severe storm, despite widespread clouds and precipitation

The weather system continues to age and weaken as it drifts eastward

Models differ in the strength of the low-level jet, but it looks like low-level shear would be marginally strong enough for a stray tornado along the warm front


Probably no severe thunderstorms

TORCON near zero

Thursday Apr / 26th Last Updated: 04/21/18 3:29:05 PM

A chance of severe thunderstorms in east half NC, east SC, southeast VA

TORCON - 2 for now until details become clearer

Computer models suggest that a trough or actual low pressure will move across the area with enough instability for a severe thunderstorm, but questions remain about the strength of the low-level winds and other details

If a strong low forms, the severe threat level would increase

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