The TOR:CON Index
from Dr. Greg Forbes' Facebook Page

Severe Weather Expert, Dr. Greg Forbes developed the TOR:CON index to estimate the risk of a tornado on a given day or night near your area.

The TOR:CON index ranges from 0 to 10. Multiply the value by 10 to get your percentage chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location. For example, a TOR:CON index of 6 means there's a 60% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location in the indicated area.

Note: By definition, a severe thunderstorm contains one or more of the following: hail at least 1 inch in diameter, wind gusts 58 mph or higher, or a tornado.

TOR:CON Value Descriptions

8+
Very high probability of a tornado
High probability of a tornado
Moderate chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
Low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm

Thursday Mar / 30th Last Updated: 03/29/17 10:23:28 AM

Severe thunderstorms in east-central and southeast MO, extreme east AR, east LA, MS, west and middle TN, west and central KY, south and central IL, south and central KY

TORCON - 4 KY, IL, IN and TN areas

3 rest of area except 2-3 in LA

Friday Mar / 31st Last Updated: 03/27/17 10:37:07 AM

Computer models differ in the position of the surface low and cold front, so forecast confidence is reduced

A chance of severe thunderstorms in southeast KY, extreme south WV, northeast TN, west, central and southeast NC, SC, central and south GA, central and east FL panhandle, northeast FL

TORCON - 2

SATURDAY 4/1

Computer models differ, but a chance of severe thunderstorms in northwest and central TX

Will defer to subsequent days for a more specific forecast

Discuss Torcon on Facebook