Severe Weather Expert, Dr. Greg Forbes developed the TOR:CON index to estimate the risk of a tornado on a given day or night near your area.
The TOR:CON index ranges from 0 to 10. Multiply the value by 10 to get your percentage chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location. For example, a TOR:CON index of 6 means there's a 60% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location in the indicated area.
Note: By definition, a severe thunderstorm contains one or more of the following: hail at least 1 inch in diameter, wind gusts 58 mph or higher, or a tornado.
Severe thunderstorms in east-central and southeast MO, extreme east AR, east LA, MS, west and middle TN, west and central KY, south and central IL, south and central KY
TORCON - 4 KY, IL, IN and TN areas
3 rest of area except 2-3 in LA
Computer models differ in the position of the surface low and cold front, so forecast confidence is reduced
A chance of severe thunderstorms in southeast KY, extreme south WV, northeast TN, west, central and southeast NC, SC, central and south GA, central and east FL panhandle, northeast FL
TORCON - 2
Computer models differ, but a chance of severe thunderstorms in northwest and central TX
Will defer to subsequent days for a more specific forecast