The TOR:CON Index
from Dr. Greg Forbes' Facebook Page

Severe Weather Expert, Dr. Greg Forbes developed the TOR:CON index to estimate the risk of a tornado on a given day or night near your area.

The TOR:CON index ranges from 0 to 10. Multiply the value by 10 to get your percentage chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location. For example, a TOR:CON index of 6 means there's a 60% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location in the indicated area.

Note: By definition, a severe thunderstorm contains one or more of the following: hail at least 1 inch in diameter, wind gusts 58 mph or higher, or a tornado.

TOR:CON Value Descriptions

Very high probability of a tornado
High probability of a tornado
Moderate chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
Low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm

Monday Jul / 8th Last Updated: 07/06/18 10:36:02 AM

Isolated severe thunderstorms in north MN, southeast ND, northeast and central SD


Computer models differ, but there is a chance that a tropical cyclone could affect eastern NC

Convergence along a frontal zone should focus a few severe storms, but lack of upper forcing and relatively air and high cloud bases hold down the tornado threat

Tuesday Nov / 13th Last Updated: 11/13/18 5:03:52 PM

that it's blurry - saw this, stopped, and shot a photo through my windshield

But it's a good message for everybody (and a pretty tree in the background) !

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