The TOR:CON Index
from Dr. Greg Forbes' Facebook Page

Severe Weather Expert, Dr. Greg Forbes developed the TOR:CON index to estimate the risk of a tornado on a given day or night near your area.

The TOR:CON index ranges from 0 to 10. Multiply the value by 10 to get your percentage chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location. For example, a TOR:CON index of 6 means there's a 60% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location in the indicated area.

Note: By definition, a severe thunderstorm contains one or more of the following: hail at least 1 inch in diameter, wind gusts 58 mph or higher, or a tornado.

TOR:CON Value Descriptions

Very high probability of a tornado
High probability of a tornado
Moderate chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
Low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm

Thursday Mar / 30th Last Updated: 03/29/17 10:23:28 AM

Severe thunderstorms in east-central and southeast MO, extreme east AR, east LA, MS, west and middle TN, west and central KY, south and central IL, south and central KY

TORCON - 4 KY, IL, IN and TN areas

3 rest of area except 2-3 in LA

Friday Mar / 31st Last Updated: 03/27/17 10:37:07 AM

Computer models differ in the position of the surface low and cold front, so forecast confidence is reduced

A chance of severe thunderstorms in southeast KY, extreme south WV, northeast TN, west, central and southeast NC, SC, central and south GA, central and east FL panhandle, northeast FL



Computer models differ, but a chance of severe thunderstorms in northwest and central TX

Will defer to subsequent days for a more specific forecast

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